February 9th NFL news ... Gambling on football online was created to provide you with all of the necessary information to better pick football games.
Welcome to gamblingfootballonline.com, the place that assists football bettors in scoring a profit over the long haul.
This site was created to provide you with all of the necessary information to better pick football games.
By stopping by our site during the football season, you will have access to all of the important trends, stats and news to better handicap all of the week’s games.
Gambling on football online
Latest News
SuperBowl Betting
SuperBowl Odds
Bet on Super Bowl
Super Bowl Line
Past Super Bowl Handicapping Trends & Stats by Steve Makinen
2010-02-03
Miami hosts this year’s Super Bowl XLIV matchup between New Orleans and Indianapolis, and being as how the Colts’ Super Bowl win in the same city three years ago was marred by quagmire-like conditions, a game that went under the total, it would be a wise move to check the forecasts on Sunday morning before hitting the confirm button on you wagers. Ironically, the pointspread for that game (Colts -6.5 over Bears) is similar to this year’s contest (Colts -5.5 over Saints), despite the fact that again, the NFC team boasts better all-around stats from the season. Does that mean we should expect a repeat of that game, or is New Orleans fully capable of pulling the upset? While we’re thinking of it, is there anything else from past Super Bowl action that can be used to handicap this year’s game? Let’s dig through the history of the Super Bowl and see what we can come up with.
Before beginning, one word of caution always has to accompany an article surrounding Super Bowl handicapping, and that is to remember that it is simply one game, the singular most wagered event in all of sports, and thus heavily weighted by oddsmakers to attract public action. How else could one explain that Indy is the favorite of 5.5-points, despite having a lesser scoring differential against a weaker schedule? Let’s face it, the line was initially set up at Indy -4 because of the “Peyton Manning Factor”, and has been bet upward since due to bettors’ fascination with him. Still, being as how it is just one game, I caution you to wager wisely, as no one game should outweigh a season’s worth of hard work or a springtime of gambling debt.
The Super Bowl game line is set up differently than one in the regular season, simply because of the vast number of amateurs partaking in the betting festivities for perhaps their only time all year. It’s kind of like going to church on Christmas, with the priest adjusting his message for the rare visitors. In the same way, oddsmakers adjust their line-setting policies. In other words, a “square” line typically becomes even more square. If you do a search on “NFL Power Ratings” currently, you’ll find that most sites indicate the line for this year’s game should be between Indy -2 and New Orleans -2. The current line is much higher. With so much money on the line for the Super Bowl, this may be the one game each year where the HOUSE truly is looking for balanced action rather than taking a side. That is the reason for the inflated line, but according to the BETTING TRENDS analysis on page 5, even the current line has yet to accomplish that goal. We’ll see how it plays out over the remainder of the week.
The other challenge that faces bettors is that the Super Bowl offers some variation from the normal handicapping routine. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a sometime overwhelming task of handicapping. If you choose to wager on numerous different options, be prepared to find yourself conflicted near the end of the game. As always, it does pay off to do your homework.
Hopefully, with everything we’re offering for Sunday’s New Orleans-Indianapolis showdown, you will at least go into the betting process prepared. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what I’m here to do now, as I look back at 43 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to make educated selections.
Super Bowl Stat Angles
Because of the extra week of preparation and the neutral field environment, neither team in a Super Bowl game will have any artificial advantages. Both are quality teams with exceptional coaching staffs, so they will be prepared to play. As was proven two years ago in the Giants mega-upset of the Patriots, there is no such thing as a physical mismatch in the Super Bowl. What I’m getting at is that winning games of this magnitude comes down to execution. Some teams might show up planning to pull a few gimmicks, but they won’t be able to do so for the full 60 minutes. The eventual winner is the team that best controls the line of scrimmage, makes the most big plays, and avoids catastrophic mistakes like turning the ball over. In past Super Bowls, the team that accomplished these goals has nearly always came out on top. Those familiar with the StatFox FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.
Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that I like to use to determine their relationship to winning, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
* Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-8 SU & 32-8-3 ATS (80%).
* Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 38-5 SU & 32-8-3 ATS (80%).
* In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just four times SU and six times ATS (85%). Amazingly, the last three times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last three world championships.
* Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31-12 SU & 30-10-3 ATS (75%).
* Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-2 SU & 32-5-1 ATS (86%). In ’09, Arizona ran for more yards, turned the ball over fewer times, and possessed the ball longer than Pittsburgh to cover the pointspread, yet lost on the scoreboard.
* Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots.
Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems
Last year I cited the 2006 Super Bowl run by Pittsburgh as the game that dramatically changed the route to becoming a champion in the NFL. That was the first time a #6 seed emerged to win the Lombardi Trophy. Since then we have seen wildcard teams Indianapolis & the Giants win titles. In last year’s game, we had a team that won just nine games in the regular season come within seconds of winning the Super Bowl. While the Cardinals lost in heartbreaking fashion, they still managed to cover the pointspread, again defying all that we had come to learn about Super Bowl handicapping prior to ’06. This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings, and past templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs. Well, thankfully, order has been restored to the NFL playoff system, as two #1 seeds will be playing for all the marbles on Sunday, for the first time in 16 years.
With that cautionary note out of the way, here are some historical Super Bowl trends, stats, and other tidbits that you can either use to handicap Sunday’s game, or at the very least, offer up at your parties to show off in front of game-watching friends. While on that subject, you can start off by “wow-ing” your company with this bit of interesting Super Bowl history: In the last nine Super Bowl games, there have been NINE different NFC representatives, but just four from the AFC. Enjoy the trends, where appropriate I will give the most recent game trend.
ATS and Money Line Trends
* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 30-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-19-3 (52.5%). However, over the past eight years, the underdog owns a 6-2 ATS (75.0%) edge. The only two favorites to win and cover in that span were Indy in ’07 and Pittsburgh in ’06.
* Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium. It doesn’t appear that this year’s line will reach that high, but be sure to follow throughout the week.
* The straight up winner is 34-6-3 ATS (85%) in the 43 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-3 ATS the past six years.
* The NFC holds a 22-21 SU and 22-18-3 (55%) ATS edge all time, and is on a 2-5 SU but 5-2 ATS run since Tampa Bay’s win over Oakland in ’03.
* #1 seeds from the NFC are on a 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS slide since 2001 in the Super Bowl.
* The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-11-2 ATS (8.3%) in the last 14 Super Bowl games! This would be our golden nugget except for the fact that both Indianapolis and New Orleans were #1 seeds out of their respective conferences.
* The team with the better record going in to the game is 28-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)
* Teams playing in their first Super Bowl against an experienced club are 5-2-1 ATS in their L8.
* In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.1 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.4 PPG, an average winning margin 14.7 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.
* There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).
Over/Under Trends
* The most important point to note about the total for this year’s Super Bowl, set at 56.5 at presstime, is the HIGHEST EVER in the history of the game.
* Overall, in the 25 Super Bowl games that have had totals, the OVER is 15-9-1.
* There have been 45.4 PPG scored in the Super Bowl on average, however, over the last five years, that figure is just 40.6. In fact, last year’s game snapped a string of four straight UNDER’s, and was the highest scoring Super Bowl since ’04, despite having the lowest total.
* The last five Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 47 or higher have gone UNDER.
* The ’09 Super Bowl was one of only 10 in history that saw both teams reach the 20-point mark. All seven that had totals were OVER’s.
* The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 15 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 21.5 PPG. However, a caveat, the last two OVER games (’04 & ’09) were decided by 3 & 4 points.
NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
In continuation of the series I started a few weeks back, analyzing some statistical angles by round in the playoffs, here are some trends and the qualifying play for this Sunday’s game based upon teams’ stats headed into the big game. If the stat isn’t listed here, there wasn’t any significant trend forming.
* Teams with the edge against the line on the StatFox Outplay Factor Rating have lost four straight games against the spread.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team with the better won-lost record headed into the Super Bowl is on a 4-9-2 ATS (31%) slide.
- Qualifiers for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS
* The team that averages more points per game offensively headed into the Super Bowl is just 1-8-1 ATS (10%) over the last decade.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team that converts a better percentage of 3rd down attempts headed into the Super Bowl is just 2-7-1 ATS (20%) in the L10 years.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS
* The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per rushing attempt on offense is 9-5-2 ATS (64%) in the L16 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: On NEW ORLEANS
* The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per passing attempt on offense is just 4-8-2 ATS (64%) in the L14 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team with the edge in offensive yards per point is on a 2-6 ATS (25%) slide in the L8 Super Bowl games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team with the better turnover differential heading into the Super Bowl is 0-6 ATS (0%) over the L6 years.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The Super Bowl team that allows yards per rushing attempt on defense is 3-8-2 ATS (27%) in the L16 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS
If you were counting, that was five Against New Orleans, and four either Against Indianapolis or On the Saints. Is that a hint of what’s to come? Enjoy the action, and good luck from everyone at StatFox!
NFL: Early Super Bowl Preview
2010-01-26
The Super Bowl matchup is set, with Indianapolis and New Orleans getting two weeks to prepare for their championship showdown in Miami. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have already weighed in on their thoughts, installing the Colts as 4-point opening line favorites. That number has since moved to 5.5-points, with Indy getting about 64% of the action according to the BETTING TRENDS page. Read on for a quick look at the backdrop surrounding Super Bowl XLIV and stick with Sportsbook.com from now till kickoff of the big game for more great coverage.
Peyton Manning survived an early knockout attempt by the Jets, guided the third-biggest comeback in AFC Championship Game history—11 points—and shredded Gang Green’s No. 1-ranked defense in the process. The NFL’s regular season Most Valuable Player threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-17 victory that ended far better than it started.
The Colts scored the game’s final 24 points and routinely made big plays against a New York defense that rarely allowed them through its first 18 games. Manning completed five throws of at least 20 yards and turned the tide with a four-play, 80-yard drive late in the second quarter that cut the 11-point deficit to just 17-13 at halftime. Head coach Rex Ryan’s team never recovered.
New Orleans proved to be equally resilient despite being dominated in almost every aspect of last Sunday’s NFC Championship Game by Minnesota, including total yards (475-257) and time of possession (36:49-27:56). The Saints squeaked by the Vikings, 31-28 in overtime, to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
Along with Manning, Super Bowl XLIV also features the runner-up in the NFL MVP race, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, who finished the regular season with 34 touchdowns and has added six more in two postseason victories. There are few differences between the two signal-callers, other than Manning’s overwhelming postseason experience. The Colts quarterback is now 3-2 in AFC title games (9-8 overall) and looks to win his second Super Bowl title in the last four seasons.
Regardless of who’s in the huddle, the two quarterbacks never lack confidence in flinging the ball around. Against the Jets, Manning’s top targets, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, who each had at least 100 catches and 1,000 yards receiving during the regular season, combined for seven grabs and 90 yards. So, he turned to second-year wideout Pierre Garcon (11 catches, 151 yards, one touchdown) and rookie Austin Collie (7, 123, 1). Brees spread the ball around to eight different receivers, three of whom scored in the NFC title game.
The overall series between the teams is tied at 5-5, but the Colts have won the last two meetings, the most recent a 41-10 blowout in 2007.
PREDICTION
There’s no question Manning can keep up with Brees in a shootout. What is an issue is whether or not his defense can do enough to slow New Orleans down. The Colts knocked off a pair of run-oriented offenses (Ravens and Jets) in their first two playoff games, but the well-balanced Saints present a far bigger problem. NEW ORLEANS 38, INDIANAPOLIS 32
NFL: MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS (6:40 PM ET, FOX)
2010-01-22
For the 2010 NFC Championship Game, Brett Favre returns to the site of his biggest career win ever, hoping to put his new team in position to reach similar lofty heights. Favre won his only Super Bowl in New Orleans while with the Packers, and now, with Green bay’s biggest rival, the Vikings, can put himself in position to capture an improbable second title. The Saints are at home and favored by 3.5-points at Sportsbook.com though, and just as hungry as Minnesota to win a first ever NFL title. Betting action is split fairly evenly on the side, but nearly 75% of bettors expect this game to fly over the total of 53.
Favre was phenomenal in Sunday’s rout of Dallas, throwing a career playoff high four TD’s, adding to what has been a MVP-caliber season. Getting past this game won’t be easy though, as the league’s best offense awaits, with another prolific quarterback at the controls, Drew Brees, who’s Saints seemed to pick up where they left off about six weeks ago with a 45-14 win over Arizona in the Divisional Round.
New Orleans was installed as a 4.5-point favorite at opener for the contest, and is right where it wants to be, at home in front of what figures to be a raucous crowd. The Saints are 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS at home this season while scoring 33.2 PPG. Minnesota is just 4-4 SU & ATS on the road, but is also capable of putting up points, 29.2 PPG thus far. You have to figure Saints coach Sean Payton would love to get into a shootout though, as he is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. very good offensive teams scoring >=27 PPG as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. The average score in those games was NEW ORLEANS 40.5, OPPONENT 24.3.
This game of course, is unfamiliar territory for both franchises, as neither has ever won a Super Bowl, and the winner will get the chance to do so in two weeks. The Vikings haven’t been in the conference title game since the infamous loss to Atlanta at home in ’99. For as comfortable as he looked on Sunday at the Metrodome, Favre hasn’t won a road playoff game since the ’98 NFC title game. New Orleans is playing for a conference title for the second time ever (’07 loss at Chicago). The Vikings own a 4-0 SU & ATS edge in the head-to-head series since ’02, including a 30-27 win at the Superdonw in October ’08.
Here is StatFox Steve’s take on the NFC title tilt, straight from the Platinum Sheet…In my opinion, the NFC Championship Game comes down to whether or not the Saints offense is “back” from its late season struggles. Can the performance over Arizona’s inept defensive unit really be enough to springboard New Orleans on to Miami? The fact that the Saints are at home makes this answer a little easier, as the Superdome tends to make them faster and more comfortable. Can you believe how good Reggie Bush looked on Saturday? HC Sean Payton’s team averages 33.2 PPG at home and topped the 30-point plateau six times in nine contests as hosts. To me, that indicates that Minnesota is going to have to score at least 30 points itself to win this game. If you don’t think the Vikings can, then by all means you cannot play them against the spread, as if you read the article on pgs 4-5, you’ll see that hosts playing as favorites in the -3 to -9.5 line range in Conference Championship Round games are 13-8 SU & ATS since ’93. The straight up winner is 21-0 ATS in such games! In other words, for both of these contests, you may think getting some extra points might help you, but history has shown that the game winner will cover. With that in mind, I turn to a prolific Money Line FoxSheets Super Situation that will be in play for Sunday’s game: Play On - Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after a win by 28 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. (31-1 since 1983.) (96.9%, +29.3 units. Rating = 5*). I don’t like the way Minnesota has transformed into a one-dimensional club, and with Brett Favre’s recent road playoff history, I don’t think he can keep up with Drew Brees here. Saints win, 34-20.
Play: Minnesota -3.5
NFL: NY JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (3:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-22
Rex Ryan’s Jets’ team has gone from #5 seed to a step away from the Super Bowl by virtue of two road playoff wins. The only thing standing in the way now of his potentially prophetic prediction is a victory in Indianapolis. Certainly that is no small task, though New York accomplished that exact feat four weeks ago to end the Colts’ bid at a perfect season. Indianapolis of course, pulled many its starters in the second half of that game to the dismay of fans, bettors, and experts alike. In this week’s AFC title rematch, the Colts will play at full strength for the full 60 minutes, and are consequently listed as an 8-point favorite, and getting the backing of over 60% of bettors at Sportsbook.com.
The reason for the controversial move by HC Jim Caldwell was to get to this point with his team’s health and eventual goal intact, that being a trip to Miami and Super Bowl XLV. His club is the AFC’s #1 seed, and playing for the conference championship for the first time in three years, coincidentally, the last time they took home the Lombardi Trophy, also from Miami. The Colts, led by NFL MVP Peyton Manning, have been opened as 7.5-point favorites, but strangely for a 14-win club, haven’t been favored by more than a TD since November 8th. They are just 4-5 ATS at home this season and 8-14 ATS in their L22 as hosts. However, Indianapolis is on a 21-9 ATS run at home vs. good defensive teams yielding 17 PPG or fewer, and is facing a second straight playoff opponent who could be fatigued from consecutive weeks on the road.
The Jets are 7-3 SU & ATS on the road in ’09-10 and come in having won seven of their L8, both SU & ATS. During that stretch, the league’s top ranked rush offense has gained 182.6 YPG on the ground. Nobody believed Ryan a few weeks ago when he said the Jets should be favored to win Super Bowl XLIV, but maybe now it’s officially time to take notice.
The teams have split the last eight head-to-head meetings SU, with the Jets owning a 5-3 ATS edge since ’00. The most recent playoff meeting was in 2003, a 41-0 win by New York at home, a game that still stands as Manning’s worst playoff loss.
Here’s what StatFox’s Steve Makinen had to say about the AFC Title game in the Platinum Sheet…The AFC Championship offers an intriguing rematch of a Week 16 game which unfortunately can’t be used in any meaningful fashion to handicap the current game. Indy’s decision to rest starters in that contest after getting out to a halftime lead puts bettors in an awkward spot here. Obviously we all know that the Jets came back to win that game and haven’t lost since. Whetehr or not we can use the numerous revenge systems listed on FoxSheets remains up for debate. What we don know is this…the NFL’s top ranked defense, playing very well mind you, is squaring off against the league’s best quarterback. That in itself makes this a memorable matchup. Who has the edge though? In most cases, I would say the defense, but when that defense is accompanied by a rookie quarterback on the other side of the ball, I become a little more hesitant. I don’t believe the Jets are going to be able to play as conservatively as they did last week vs. the perennially playoff choking Chargers, although I believe that is how they will play. At points much earlier in the game, Mark Sanchez is going to have to make plays. Indy’s defense looked solid itself last week, is a playoff tested unit, and its stats are marred somewhat by the late season dive the team took. Take a look at the system: Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 9 points or less last game. (29-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 2*). When it’s all said and done, I am uncomfortable going with the short end of the QB mismatch in such a big game. I could see a 20-3 type of game like last week, or a 20-17 OT affair. Either way, I’d feel more comfortable putting my money on the total. UNDER.
Play: Jets-Colts UNDER 40.5
Past Super Bowl Handicapping Trends & Stats by Steve Makinen
2010-02-03
Miami hosts this year’s Super Bowl XLIV matchup between New Orleans and Indianapolis, and being as how the Colts’ Super Bowl win in the same city three years ago was marred by quagmire-like conditions, a game that went under the total, it would be a wise move to check the forecasts on Sunday morning before hitting the confirm button on you wagers. Ironically, the pointspread for that game (Colts -6.5 over Bears) is similar to this year’s contest (Colts -5.5 over Saints), despite the fact that again, the NFC team boasts better all-around stats from the season. Does that mean we should expect a repeat of that game, or is New Orleans fully capable of pulling the upset? While we’re thinking of it, is there anything else from past Super Bowl action that can be used to handicap this year’s game? Let’s dig through the history of the Super Bowl and see what we can come up with.
Before beginning, one word of caution always has to accompany an article surrounding Super Bowl handicapping, and that is to remember that it is simply one game, the singular most wagered event in all of sports, and thus heavily weighted by oddsmakers to attract public action. How else could one explain that Indy is the favorite of 5.5-points, despite having a lesser scoring differential against a weaker schedule? Let’s face it, the line was initially set up at Indy -4 because of the “Peyton Manning Factor”, and has been bet upward since due to bettors’ fascination with him. Still, being as how it is just one game, I caution you to wager wisely, as no one game should outweigh a season’s worth of hard work or a springtime of gambling debt.
The Super Bowl game line is set up differently than one in the regular season, simply because of the vast number of amateurs partaking in the betting festivities for perhaps their only time all year. It’s kind of like going to church on Christmas, with the priest adjusting his message for the rare visitors. In the same way, oddsmakers adjust their line-setting policies. In other words, a “square” line typically becomes even more square. If you do a search on “NFL Power Ratings” currently, you’ll find that most sites indicate the line for this year’s game should be between Indy -2 and New Orleans -2. The current line is much higher. With so much money on the line for the Super Bowl, this may be the one game each year where the HOUSE truly is looking for balanced action rather than taking a side. That is the reason for the inflated line, but according to the BETTING TRENDS analysis on page 5, even the current line has yet to accomplish that goal. We’ll see how it plays out over the remainder of the week.
The other challenge that faces bettors is that the Super Bowl offers some variation from the normal handicapping routine. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a sometime overwhelming task of handicapping. If you choose to wager on numerous different options, be prepared to find yourself conflicted near the end of the game. As always, it does pay off to do your homework.
Hopefully, with everything we’re offering for Sunday’s New Orleans-Indianapolis showdown, you will at least go into the betting process prepared. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what I’m here to do now, as I look back at 43 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to make educated selections.
Super Bowl Stat Angles
Because of the extra week of preparation and the neutral field environment, neither team in a Super Bowl game will have any artificial advantages. Both are quality teams with exceptional coaching staffs, so they will be prepared to play. As was proven two years ago in the Giants mega-upset of the Patriots, there is no such thing as a physical mismatch in the Super Bowl. What I’m getting at is that winning games of this magnitude comes down to execution. Some teams might show up planning to pull a few gimmicks, but they won’t be able to do so for the full 60 minutes. The eventual winner is the team that best controls the line of scrimmage, makes the most big plays, and avoids catastrophic mistakes like turning the ball over. In past Super Bowls, the team that accomplished these goals has nearly always came out on top. Those familiar with the StatFox FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.
Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that I like to use to determine their relationship to winning, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
* Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-8 SU & 32-8-3 ATS (80%).
* Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 38-5 SU & 32-8-3 ATS (80%).
* In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just four times SU and six times ATS (85%). Amazingly, the last three times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last three world championships.
* Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31-12 SU & 30-10-3 ATS (75%).
* Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-2 SU & 32-5-1 ATS (86%). In ’09, Arizona ran for more yards, turned the ball over fewer times, and possessed the ball longer than Pittsburgh to cover the pointspread, yet lost on the scoreboard.
* Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots.
Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems
Last year I cited the 2006 Super Bowl run by Pittsburgh as the game that dramatically changed the route to becoming a champion in the NFL. That was the first time a #6 seed emerged to win the Lombardi Trophy. Since then we have seen wildcard teams Indianapolis & the Giants win titles. In last year’s game, we had a team that won just nine games in the regular season come within seconds of winning the Super Bowl. While the Cardinals lost in heartbreaking fashion, they still managed to cover the pointspread, again defying all that we had come to learn about Super Bowl handicapping prior to ’06. This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings, and past templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs. Well, thankfully, order has been restored to the NFL playoff system, as two #1 seeds will be playing for all the marbles on Sunday, for the first time in 16 years.
With that cautionary note out of the way, here are some historical Super Bowl trends, stats, and other tidbits that you can either use to handicap Sunday’s game, or at the very least, offer up at your parties to show off in front of game-watching friends. While on that subject, you can start off by “wow-ing” your company with this bit of interesting Super Bowl history: In the last nine Super Bowl games, there have been NINE different NFC representatives, but just four from the AFC. Enjoy the trends, where appropriate I will give the most recent game trend.
ATS and Money Line Trends
* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 30-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-19-3 (52.5%). However, over the past eight years, the underdog owns a 6-2 ATS (75.0%) edge. The only two favorites to win and cover in that span were Indy in ’07 and Pittsburgh in ’06.
* Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium. It doesn’t appear that this year’s line will reach that high, but be sure to follow throughout the week.
* The straight up winner is 34-6-3 ATS (85%) in the 43 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-3 ATS the past six years.
* The NFC holds a 22-21 SU and 22-18-3 (55%) ATS edge all time, and is on a 2-5 SU but 5-2 ATS run since Tampa Bay’s win over Oakland in ’03.
* #1 seeds from the NFC are on a 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS slide since 2001 in the Super Bowl.
* The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-11-2 ATS (8.3%) in the last 14 Super Bowl games! This would be our golden nugget except for the fact that both Indianapolis and New Orleans were #1 seeds out of their respective conferences.
* The team with the better record going in to the game is 28-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)
* Teams playing in their first Super Bowl against an experienced club are 5-2-1 ATS in their L8.
* In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.1 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.4 PPG, an average winning margin 14.7 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.
* There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).
Over/Under Trends
* The most important point to note about the total for this year’s Super Bowl, set at 56.5 at presstime, is the HIGHEST EVER in the history of the game.
* Overall, in the 25 Super Bowl games that have had totals, the OVER is 15-9-1.
* There have been 45.4 PPG scored in the Super Bowl on average, however, over the last five years, that figure is just 40.6. In fact, last year’s game snapped a string of four straight UNDER’s, and was the highest scoring Super Bowl since ’04, despite having the lowest total.
* The last five Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 47 or higher have gone UNDER.
* The ’09 Super Bowl was one of only 10 in history that saw both teams reach the 20-point mark. All seven that had totals were OVER’s.
* The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 15 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 21.5 PPG. However, a caveat, the last two OVER games (’04 & ’09) were decided by 3 & 4 points.
NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
In continuation of the series I started a few weeks back, analyzing some statistical angles by round in the playoffs, here are some trends and the qualifying play for this Sunday’s game based upon teams’ stats headed into the big game. If the stat isn’t listed here, there wasn’t any significant trend forming.
* Teams with the edge against the line on the StatFox Outplay Factor Rating have lost four straight games against the spread.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team with the better won-lost record headed into the Super Bowl is on a 4-9-2 ATS (31%) slide.
- Qualifiers for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS
* The team that averages more points per game offensively headed into the Super Bowl is just 1-8-1 ATS (10%) over the last decade.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team that converts a better percentage of 3rd down attempts headed into the Super Bowl is just 2-7-1 ATS (20%) in the L10 years.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS
* The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per rushing attempt on offense is 9-5-2 ATS (64%) in the L16 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: On NEW ORLEANS
* The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per passing attempt on offense is just 4-8-2 ATS (64%) in the L14 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team with the edge in offensive yards per point is on a 2-6 ATS (25%) slide in the L8 Super Bowl games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team with the better turnover differential heading into the Super Bowl is 0-6 ATS (0%) over the L6 years.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The Super Bowl team that allows yards per rushing attempt on defense is 3-8-2 ATS (27%) in the L16 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS
If you were counting, that was five Against New Orleans, and four either Against Indianapolis or On the Saints. Is that a hint of what’s to come? Enjoy the action, and good luck from everyone at StatFox!
NFL: Early Super Bowl Preview
2010-01-26
The Super Bowl matchup is set, with Indianapolis and New Orleans getting two weeks to prepare for their championship showdown in Miami. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have already weighed in on their thoughts, installing the Colts as 4-point opening line favorites. That number has since moved to 5.5-points, with Indy getting about 64% of the action according to the BETTING TRENDS page. Read on for a quick look at the backdrop surrounding Super Bowl XLIV and stick with Sportsbook.com from now till kickoff of the big game for more great coverage.
Peyton Manning survived an early knockout attempt by the Jets, guided the third-biggest comeback in AFC Championship Game history—11 points—and shredded Gang Green’s No. 1-ranked defense in the process. The NFL’s regular season Most Valuable Player threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-17 victory that ended far better than it started.
The Colts scored the game’s final 24 points and routinely made big plays against a New York defense that rarely allowed them through its first 18 games. Manning completed five throws of at least 20 yards and turned the tide with a four-play, 80-yard drive late in the second quarter that cut the 11-point deficit to just 17-13 at halftime. Head coach Rex Ryan’s team never recovered.
New Orleans proved to be equally resilient despite being dominated in almost every aspect of last Sunday’s NFC Championship Game by Minnesota, including total yards (475-257) and time of possession (36:49-27:56). The Saints squeaked by the Vikings, 31-28 in overtime, to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
Along with Manning, Super Bowl XLIV also features the runner-up in the NFL MVP race, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, who finished the regular season with 34 touchdowns and has added six more in two postseason victories. There are few differences between the two signal-callers, other than Manning’s overwhelming postseason experience. The Colts quarterback is now 3-2 in AFC title games (9-8 overall) and looks to win his second Super Bowl title in the last four seasons.
Regardless of who’s in the huddle, the two quarterbacks never lack confidence in flinging the ball around. Against the Jets, Manning’s top targets, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, who each had at least 100 catches and 1,000 yards receiving during the regular season, combined for seven grabs and 90 yards. So, he turned to second-year wideout Pierre Garcon (11 catches, 151 yards, one touchdown) and rookie Austin Collie (7, 123, 1). Brees spread the ball around to eight different receivers, three of whom scored in the NFC title game.
The overall series between the teams is tied at 5-5, but the Colts have won the last two meetings, the most recent a 41-10 blowout in 2007.
PREDICTION
There’s no question Manning can keep up with Brees in a shootout. What is an issue is whether or not his defense can do enough to slow New Orleans down. The Colts knocked off a pair of run-oriented offenses (Ravens and Jets) in their first two playoff games, but the well-balanced Saints present a far bigger problem. NEW ORLEANS 38, INDIANAPOLIS 32
NFL: MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS (6:40 PM ET, FOX)
2010-01-22
For the 2010 NFC Championship Game, Brett Favre returns to the site of his biggest career win ever, hoping to put his new team in position to reach similar lofty heights. Favre won his only Super Bowl in New Orleans while with the Packers, and now, with Green bay’s biggest rival, the Vikings, can put himself in position to capture an improbable second title. The Saints are at home and favored by 3.5-points at Sportsbook.com though, and just as hungry as Minnesota to win a first ever NFL title. Betting action is split fairly evenly on the side, but nearly 75% of bettors expect this game to fly over the total of 53.
Favre was phenomenal in Sunday’s rout of Dallas, throwing a career playoff high four TD’s, adding to what has been a MVP-caliber season. Getting past this game won’t be easy though, as the league’s best offense awaits, with another prolific quarterback at the controls, Drew Brees, who’s Saints seemed to pick up where they left off about six weeks ago with a 45-14 win over Arizona in the Divisional Round.
New Orleans was installed as a 4.5-point favorite at opener for the contest, and is right where it wants to be, at home in front of what figures to be a raucous crowd. The Saints are 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS at home this season while scoring 33.2 PPG. Minnesota is just 4-4 SU & ATS on the road, but is also capable of putting up points, 29.2 PPG thus far. You have to figure Saints coach Sean Payton would love to get into a shootout though, as he is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. very good offensive teams scoring >=27 PPG as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. The average score in those games was NEW ORLEANS 40.5, OPPONENT 24.3.
This game of course, is unfamiliar territory for both franchises, as neither has ever won a Super Bowl, and the winner will get the chance to do so in two weeks. The Vikings haven’t been in the conference title game since the infamous loss to Atlanta at home in ’99. For as comfortable as he looked on Sunday at the Metrodome, Favre hasn’t won a road playoff game since the ’98 NFC title game. New Orleans is playing for a conference title for the second time ever (’07 loss at Chicago). The Vikings own a 4-0 SU & ATS edge in the head-to-head series since ’02, including a 30-27 win at the Superdonw in October ’08.
Here is StatFox Steve’s take on the NFC title tilt, straight from the Platinum Sheet…In my opinion, the NFC Championship Game comes down to whether or not the Saints offense is “back” from its late season struggles. Can the performance over Arizona’s inept defensive unit really be enough to springboard New Orleans on to Miami? The fact that the Saints are at home makes this answer a little easier, as the Superdome tends to make them faster and more comfortable. Can you believe how good Reggie Bush looked on Saturday? HC Sean Payton’s team averages 33.2 PPG at home and topped the 30-point plateau six times in nine contests as hosts. To me, that indicates that Minnesota is going to have to score at least 30 points itself to win this game. If you don’t think the Vikings can, then by all means you cannot play them against the spread, as if you read the article on pgs 4-5, you’ll see that hosts playing as favorites in the -3 to -9.5 line range in Conference Championship Round games are 13-8 SU & ATS since ’93. The straight up winner is 21-0 ATS in such games! In other words, for both of these contests, you may think getting some extra points might help you, but history has shown that the game winner will cover. With that in mind, I turn to a prolific Money Line FoxSheets Super Situation that will be in play for Sunday’s game: Play On - Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after a win by 28 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. (31-1 since 1983.) (96.9%, +29.3 units. Rating = 5*). I don’t like the way Minnesota has transformed into a one-dimensional club, and with Brett Favre’s recent road playoff history, I don’t think he can keep up with Drew Brees here. Saints win, 34-20.
Play: Minnesota -3.5
NFL: NY JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (3:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-22
Rex Ryan’s Jets’ team has gone from #5 seed to a step away from the Super Bowl by virtue of two road playoff wins. The only thing standing in the way now of his potentially prophetic prediction is a victory in Indianapolis. Certainly that is no small task, though New York accomplished that exact feat four weeks ago to end the Colts’ bid at a perfect season. Indianapolis of course, pulled many its starters in the second half of that game to the dismay of fans, bettors, and experts alike. In this week’s AFC title rematch, the Colts will play at full strength for the full 60 minutes, and are consequently listed as an 8-point favorite, and getting the backing of over 60% of bettors at Sportsbook.com.
The reason for the controversial move by HC Jim Caldwell was to get to this point with his team’s health and eventual goal intact, that being a trip to Miami and Super Bowl XLV. His club is the AFC’s #1 seed, and playing for the conference championship for the first time in three years, coincidentally, the last time they took home the Lombardi Trophy, also from Miami. The Colts, led by NFL MVP Peyton Manning, have been opened as 7.5-point favorites, but strangely for a 14-win club, haven’t been favored by more than a TD since November 8th. They are just 4-5 ATS at home this season and 8-14 ATS in their L22 as hosts. However, Indianapolis is on a 21-9 ATS run at home vs. good defensive teams yielding 17 PPG or fewer, and is facing a second straight playoff opponent who could be fatigued from consecutive weeks on the road.
The Jets are 7-3 SU & ATS on the road in ’09-10 and come in having won seven of their L8, both SU & ATS. During that stretch, the league’s top ranked rush offense has gained 182.6 YPG on the ground. Nobody believed Ryan a few weeks ago when he said the Jets should be favored to win Super Bowl XLIV, but maybe now it’s officially time to take notice.
The teams have split the last eight head-to-head meetings SU, with the Jets owning a 5-3 ATS edge since ’00. The most recent playoff meeting was in 2003, a 41-0 win by New York at home, a game that still stands as Manning’s worst playoff loss.
Here’s what StatFox’s Steve Makinen had to say about the AFC Title game in the Platinum Sheet…The AFC Championship offers an intriguing rematch of a Week 16 game which unfortunately can’t be used in any meaningful fashion to handicap the current game. Indy’s decision to rest starters in that contest after getting out to a halftime lead puts bettors in an awkward spot here. Obviously we all know that the Jets came back to win that game and haven’t lost since. Whetehr or not we can use the numerous revenge systems listed on FoxSheets remains up for debate. What we don know is this…the NFL’s top ranked defense, playing very well mind you, is squaring off against the league’s best quarterback. That in itself makes this a memorable matchup. Who has the edge though? In most cases, I would say the defense, but when that defense is accompanied by a rookie quarterback on the other side of the ball, I become a little more hesitant. I don’t believe the Jets are going to be able to play as conservatively as they did last week vs. the perennially playoff choking Chargers, although I believe that is how they will play. At points much earlier in the game, Mark Sanchez is going to have to make plays. Indy’s defense looked solid itself last week, is a playoff tested unit, and its stats are marred somewhat by the late season dive the team took. Take a look at the system: Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 9 points or less last game. (29-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 2*). When it’s all said and done, I am uncomfortable going with the short end of the QB mismatch in such a big game. I could see a 20-3 type of game like last week, or a 20-17 OT affair. Either way, I’d feel more comfortable putting my money on the total. UNDER.
Play: Jets-Colts UNDER 40.5